XRP/BTC RSI at Most Oversold Level Since October 2025
XRP has been in a downtrend for eight months, and the XRP/BTC ratio is now flashing a signal that has historically preceded significant recoveries. The RSI of the XRP/BTC pair has dropped to 24 — the most oversold reading since October 2025 — according to TradingView data.
This level is not random. The same zone on the daily RSI marked macro bottoms for the XRP/BTC ratio in late 2024 and 2025, each time preceding outperformance of 65% to 345% against Bitcoin. The last comparable bottom occurred in June 2025, which launched a 61% rally in the XRP/BTC ratio and accompanied a 92% price rally in XRP/USD to a multi-year high of $3.66.
The XRP/BTC pair is also consolidating within a historical range that has repeatedly acted as a launching pad for the ratio. The pattern does not guarantee a repeat, but the structure is consistent with prior major recovery setups.
MVRV Z-Score Near Zero — A Signal of Accumulation, Not Distribution
XRP‘s MVRV Z-score is hovering near zero, a level that historically aligns with accumulation zones rather than distribution. When the Z-score is near zero, the average holder is close to breakeven — meaning sell pressure from profit-taking is minimal and the downside exhaustion thesis strengthens.
The same pattern appeared in 2021, 2022, and 2024 before major XRP rallies. Most notably, when the MVRV Z-score fell to similar levels in late 2024, XRP was trading near $0.30. The subsequent rally pushed the token to a multi-year high above $3 — a 500% move
A separate MVRV pricing band metric adds context. The 0.80 MVRV band — which has historically marked cycle bottoms — is currently sitting at $1.14, coinciding with the 15-month low reached on February 6. XRP is currently trading above that level, which is a constructive signal if support holds.
$1.30 Support: 1.73 Billion XRP Sit at This Cost Basis
The price level that matters most right now is $1.25-$1.30. XRP has been sustaining this support zone since early February 2026, and cost basis distribution data from Glassnode shows why it is significant: approximately 1.73 billion XRP were acquired in this price range. That concentration of holders at current levels creates a structural incentive to defend the zone — selling here means realizing a loss.
“$XRP is sustaining the major support zone between $1.30-$1.25 levels since early Feb’26. If this zone continues to hold, then a short-term bounce towards $1.45 can’t be ruled out.”
The upside scenario if $1.30 holds with conviction runs toward $1.45 to $1.61 — the range high that XRP needs to reclaim to shift the short-term structure from neutral to bullish. The $1.61 level is significant because it would represent a decisive break of the recent lower-high structure.
The Downside Scenario: $1.15 Is the Last Line, Then $0.80
If $1.30 fails, the next meaningful support is $1.15 — where the 200-week simple moving average is currently positioned. This level has historically provided strong demand in prior bear cycles.
Below $1.15, the technical picture deteriorates significantly. Analysts have flagged the completion of a bear flag pattern that projects a measured target of $0.80 — approximately 41% below current price. That outcome would require a sustained breakdown through both the $1.30 support and the $1.15 moving average — but the possibility is real enough that traders watching this setup are treating the $1.30 hold as binary.
The on-chain and technical signals are aligned in a way that historically suggests bottoming conditions. But historically reliable signals in crypto are not guarantees — they are probabilities. The setup improves materially if XRP holds $1.30 and closes above $1.35 on meaningful volume. It deteriorates if the support zone cracks under sustained selling pressure.
