Token Unlock

A token unlock is the scheduled release of previously locked cryptocurrency into circulating supply. When a project launches, large allocations are typically held in vesting contracts: team tokens, early investor stakes, treasury reserves, and airdrop pools. These tokens are released over months or years according to a public schedule. The day they unlock, they hit the float.

For traders, the schedule matters because supply expansion almost always exerts price pressure, especially when the unlock represents more than 10% of circulating market cap in a single day. Small-cap projects with thin liquidity feel the impact most. Large caps like ETH or major Layer-1 tokens absorb their unlocks with minimal disruption because their daily trading volumes dwarf the released supply.

Three variables decide whether an unlock moves price: the percentage of circulating supply being released, who holds the unlocking tokens (insiders versus airdrop recipients behave very differently), and how deep the order books are on the venues where the token trades. A 25% supply unlock on a $20 million market cap with thin volume can produce a sharper drop than a $30 million unlock on a $250 million project.

Coingo tracks weekly unlock schedules and analyzes which projects face material supply pressure versus which ones can absorb the release without serious damage. The goal is not to predict price action — that depends on too many other variables — but to map where the supply shocks are concentrated so traders can position around them rather than walk into them.