Patrick Witt, executive director of the President’s Council of Advisors for Digital Assets, told the audience at Bitcoin 2026 Las Vegas on Monday that the executive branch will deliver a substantive update on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve within the next few weeks. The same day, Representative Nick Begich announced that the Lummis-Begich Bitcoin Act has been reintroduced under a new name: the American Reserves Modernization Act, or ARMA.
Two parallel tracks are now moving. The executive branch is preparing an announcement on how the existing reserve will be operated. Congress is preparing legislation that would put the reserve into permanent law. Both moved in the same 24 hours. Whether they actually deliver before 2027 is a different question — and the prediction markets are not buying it yet.
What the White House Aide Actually Said
“We believe we’re going to be able to take a big step forward from the executive branch side in the next few weeks,” Witt told attendees in Las Vegas. He framed the upcoming announcement around two operational questions the administration has been working through for months: how to properly secure the bitcoin already held on the government’s balance sheet, and how existing law supports the reserve’s framework without new legislation.
The reserve currently holds only seized bitcoin — assets collected through criminal and civil forfeitures. President Trump signed an executive order in March 2025 establishing the reserve and directing the government to hold rather than sell those assets. A separate stockpile was created for other digital assets. The order has been in effect for over a year, but its operational details have remained unclear.
The open question Witt did not answer is whether the upcoming announcement will include any authority or mechanism to acquire new bitcoin. The current reserve is seizure-only. A signal that the administration intends to actually purchase bitcoin would be a meaningfully different policy than what March 2025 delivered.
What Changed When the Bitcoin Act Became ARMA
The original Lummis-Begich Bitcoin Act proposed acquiring up to 1 million BTC over five years through what its sponsors called “budget-neutral strategies.” The renamed American Reserves Modernization Act keeps that core proposal but folds it into a broader framing around modernizing all federal reserve assets, not just bitcoin.
The full text of the changes has not been publicly released yet. Begich announced the rebrand at the same Las Vegas conference where Witt spoke. The political calculus is visible. “American Reserves Modernization Act” is harder to attack as a partisan crypto giveaway than “Bitcoin Act.” The framing positions the bill as a structural update to how the U.S. holds reserves of all kinds, with bitcoin as one component.
Witt was direct about the legislative requirement. Executive orders can be reversed by the next administration. A reserve that survives political turnover requires statutory backing. The White House’s expected near-term announcement covers operational matters that fall under existing law. Anything that requires new authority — including budget-neutral acquisition mechanisms — needs Congress.
Why the Prediction Markets Are Skeptical
Polymarket data currently puts the probability of the U.S. formally establishing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve before 2027 at just 23%. That number reflects three structural concerns the market has been pricing in for months.
First, the legislative timeline. The CLARITY Act — a broader crypto market structure bill widely considered a prerequisite stepping stone for the reserve — already missed its April deadline and is facing further delays in the Senate. If CLARITY cannot clear, ARMA’s odds drop further. Second, the political environment. Democratic legislators have pushed for provisions that would explicitly bar executive branch officials, including the President, from promoting or issuing digital assets. Trump family involvement in crypto ventures has become an active source of friction. Third, the operational gap. Even with executive action and legislation, actually acquiring 1 million BTC budget-neutrally over five years is a non-trivial logistical undertaking that has not been solved on paper, let alone in practice.
Witt’s framing acknowledges this. The “big step forward” he described is not the full reserve. It is a procedural and operational update on what already exists. The legislation that would complete the picture remains unsettled. The 23% probability is a market reading on whether all the pieces actually come together in the available time.
What Other Countries Are Doing in Parallel
The U.S. is not moving alone. Canada announced a $25 billion Canada Strong Fund earlier this month that the Canadian crypto community has been actively lobbying to include bitcoin allocation. Czech Republic’s central bank chief publicly backed bitcoin as a 1% reserve allocation in what he called a “conservative but innovative” strategy. El Salvador continues to add to its existing reserve. The Czech endorsement is particularly notable because it comes from inside the European Union banking system, which has been broadly skeptical of bitcoin as a sovereign reserve asset.
If the U.S. delivers a credible reserve framework while parallel sovereign moves continue, the institutional narrative around bitcoin shifts substantively. Treasuries that had previously been blocked from direct exposure get a new precedent. Pension funds get a new reference point for fiduciary discussions. Sovereign wealth funds get political cover for what some have already been doing quietly. The reserve is not just a U.S. policy question. It sets the template for everyone else.
What to Watch in the Next Few Weeks
Three things will determine whether Witt’s promised “big step forward” actually moves the picture or simply sets up another waiting period. The first is what the executive branch announcement actually contains. If it covers operational details and legal interpretations of the existing reserve, it is largely procedural. If it includes any acquisition authority — even pilot-scale — it changes the policy meaningfully.
The second is ARMA’s reception in the Senate. Lummis has been working on Bitcoin Act variants for over a year. The Begich rebrand suggests the political strategy is shifting toward broader appeal. Whether that wins votes from Senators who blocked previous versions is the legislative test.
The third is whether the underlying market story holds. Bitcoin is currently trading near $77,000 after dropping below that level on macro pressure. The reserve announcement will land into whatever market environment exists at that moment. Major institutional buyers like Strategy continue accumulating regardless. The U.S. policy decision matters most when it interacts with what private and corporate buyers are already doing. Right now, both tracks are moving forward at the same time. Whether they converge on a credible reserve in 2026 is what the next few weeks will start to answer.
