30% vs 61%: A Significant Gap in How Washington Is Being Priced
Ron Hammond, head of policy at crypto market maker Wintermute, put the CLARITY Act’s chances of passing in 2026 at approximately 30% in a statement published April 11, 2026 — a number that stands in stark contrast to where prediction markets are currently pricing the outcome. Prediction Martkets has the bill’s 2026 signing odds at around 61%, down roughly 12 points from the prior month but still more than double Hammond’s estimate.
The gap is not a rounding difference. It reflects a fundamental disagreement about whether the remaining obstacles — stablecoin yield language, Democratic political calculations, and Senate calendar constraints — are negotiable in the time available. Hammond has watched this legislative process closely from the industry side and has been a consistent voice of caution even as broader market sentiment has turned more optimistic.
“There are a lot of moving parts. There’s light at the end of the tunnel, but there are hurdles along the way.”
The Primary Obstacle: Banks and Stablecoin Yield
The single biggest unresolved issue in the CLARITY Act negotiations is whether crypto platforms can offer yield on stablecoin holdings. The American Bankers Association has lobbied aggressively against any provision that would allow platforms like Coinbase to pay interest on stablecoins held by customers, arguing it would trigger deposit flight from traditional bank accounts.
The White House previously set a March 1 deadline for banks and crypto firms to reach a compromise on the issue. That deadline passed without a public agreement. Both sides described negotiations as ongoing, but no resolution has been announced. The Senate Banking Committee has been eyeing a markup window targeting late April — with some lawmakers floating April 20 as a potential date — though Hammond was direct about the reliability of those timelines:
“These dates are moving.”
Senators Tim Scott and Cynthia Lummis have confirmed a late-April markup target, and Sen. Bill Hagerty stated at the Vanderbilt University Digital Assets policy summit that the bill could clear the Banking Committee during the work period beginning April 13. Analysts have cautioned that if the bill does not advance from committee before Memorial Day, it effectively drops off the 2026 calendar. The Senate’s schedule tightens significantly as midterm campaigning begins in earnest after August.
Democratic Support, Trump’s Crypto Dealings, and the June Flashpoint
Hammond flagged a second risk that the market may be underpricing: the political dynamics around Democratic support. Some Democrats who accepted crypto industry funding during prior election cycles are now in a difficult position as the CLARITY Act moves toward a vote.
“If you’re a Democrat who took crypto money, where do you stand on this issue?”
The question becomes more complicated in the context of ongoing scrutiny of President Trump’s crypto-related dealings — including his family’s World Liberty Financial token project and the TRUMP memecoin. Hammond identified June as a potential flashpoint where intensifying Democratic opposition to Trump’s crypto conflicts of interest could complicate the bipartisan support the bill needs to pass.
“All of that becomes another headache.”
Unresolved concerns around DeFi provisions and anti-money laundering compliance are also still in play in the legislative text, adding further complexity to the negotiations.
What Happens If the Bill Fails in 2026
Hammond is clear on the stakes of a 2026 failure. If the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, the next realistic window is Q1 or Q2 2027 — but the congressional arithmetic may look meaningfully worse by then. The November 2026 midterms historically go against the sitting president’s party. A shift in Senate control would change the bill’s political dynamics entirely, potentially elevating figures with less favorable views on crypto into key committee positions.
For the industry, the practical consequences of continued delay are already visible. Without statutory backing, the SEC and CFTC’s current crypto-friendly guidance — including SEC Chair Paul Atkins’ recent statements suggesting most tokens are not securities — remains reversible by the next administration. The CLARITY Act’s value is specifically that it encodes these rules in law rather than leaving them as administrative positions.
Hammond acknowledged incremental progress and said he expects some movement in the near term. But his 30% figure is a deliberate signal that progress in Washington and passage in Washington are not the same thing — and that the distance between them remains substantial.
