Ether (ETH) is trading near $1,600 and showing a technical setup that mirrors the fractal from early 2025, when the token rallied roughly 250% from similar conditions. The weekly chart shows price retesting an ascending trendline that has held since 2022, and a fresh bullish MACD crossover has confirmed the pattern. At the same time, on-chain demand metrics and institutional flow data are reinforcing the case for a potential trend reversal.
Weekly MACD Crossover Mirrors the Q2 2025 Setup
On the weekly timeframe, ETH/USD is retesting the same ascending trendline that supported price through the 2022 cycle lows. The structure is strikingly similar to Q1 2025, when Ether consolidated along this support before staging a multi-month breakout.
The MACD histogram on the weekly chart has now printed a bullish crossover, the same signal that preceded the 250% move last year. Analyst Max Crypto noted the parallel on X, pointing to the similar dump-and-consolidation pattern and asking whether ETH could repeat the Q2/Q3 2025 rally.
If the fractal plays out proportionally, ETH could target approximately $6,300, which would represent a new all-time high. Fellow analyst Cryptorand emphasized that the key trigger sits at the $2,400 level. A sustained close above that zone, he noted, would confirm the bullish reversal.
Apparent Demand Reaches 90-Day High at 24,111 ETH
Capriole Investments‘ Ethereum Apparent Demand metric turned positive on April 8 and climbed to 24,111 ETH by April 14, the highest reading since December 31, 2025. The shift coincided with improved macro sentiment as hopes for a US-Iran deal lifted risk assets across the board.
A closer look at regional demand shows the Coinbase premium index for ETH, which tracks the price spread between ETH/USD on Coinbase and the equivalent pair on other centralized platforms, has flipped positive and reached 0.055. That is the highest level since October 2025.
CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain described the premium spike as a signal of increased institutional liquidity, particularly from US-based buyers. When this metric rises, it typically reflects heavier spot accumulation on regulated venues.
Spot ETH ETFs Log Three Consecutive Days of Inflows
Spot Ethereum ETFs in the US recorded net inflows for three consecutive days, totaling $160 million. The streak reversed a multi-week stretch of outflows that had weighed on sentiment through late March.
Globally, Ether exchange-traded products (ETPs) pulled in $196.5 million in net inflows last week, underscoring a broader shift in institutional positioning. The combination of rising ETF demand, a positive Coinbase premium, and a 90-day demand high paints a picture of renewed institutional appetite for ETH exposure.
Key Levels to Watch for Confirmation
For the fractal thesis to hold, ETH needs to reclaim and hold the $2,400 resistance zone. A weekly close above that level would confirm the bullish reversal and open the door to a retest of previous cycle highs. On the downside, the ascending trendline near current levels serves as the critical support. A breakdown below that structure would invalidate the fractal comparison and shift the bias toward further consolidation.
The convergence of a confirmed MACD crossover, surging apparent demand, a strong Coinbase premium, and consistent ETF inflows gives the bullish case more weight than it carried in previous failed rallies. Whether ETH can translate these signals into sustained price action above $2,400 will determine if the 2025 fractal truly repeats.
| Metric | Current Value | Previous High |
|---|---|---|
| Apparent Demand (Daily) | 24,111 ETH (Apr 14) | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Coinbase Premium Index | 0.055 | Oct 2025 |
| Spot ETH ETF Inflows (3-Day) | $160M | N/A |
| Global ETH ETP Inflows (Weekly) | $196.5M | N/A |
