The New York Times published an investigation on Sunday that lands like a grenade in the middle of the prediction market debate. The core finding: career officials at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission who raised concerns about Polymarket, Crypto.com, and a Gemini affiliate were systematically removed from the agency. The firms they questioned all have documented business ties to the Trump family.
None of the officials were told what they did wrong.
What the Staff Actually Flagged
The concerns were different for each firm. Career staff worried that Crypto.com was not treating small bettors fairly. They flagged that Polymarket lacked adequate fraud protections. And they found that a Gemini affiliate had not completed the required regulatory review before it began operating.
These are not ideological objections. They are standard regulatory compliance checks. The kind that career officials are supposed to perform. Two of them were placed on administrative leave by late 2025. Three others who had been enforcing crypto laws faced the same treatment. The Times reported that “everyone at the CFTC quickly got the message: Don’t cause trouble for those industries.”
The Revolving Door Spun Fast
Caroline Pham, who served as acting CFTC chair at the time, reportedly intervened on behalf of the firms, helping them obtain favorable outcomes over the objections of her own staff. She left the agency and joined MoonPay, a crypto payments firm that is a business partner of Polymarket.
Her senior counsel, Brigitte Weyls, became general counsel at Gemini Titan. That is the same Gemini affiliate whose application Weyls helped approve while at the CFTC, according to the Times. The current chair, Michael Selig, is the agency’s sole commissioner. He previously represented crypto firms as a corporate lawyer.
80 Enforcement Actions to Two
The numbers tell the story. Under the Biden administration, the CFTC filed more than 80 crypto enforcement actions. Under Trump, that number dropped to two. Both targeted individual operators, not major firms. The agency dropped at least five active crypto investigations.
This is happening while Congress is pressing the CFTC on insider trading in prediction markets and the House Oversight Committee launched a formal probe into trading activity on both Kalshi and Polymarket this week. The agency that is supposed to police these markets is being accused of clearing the path for them instead.
The Trump Family Connections
The Times mapped the business ties. Crypto.com is a business partner of Trump Media. Donald Trump Jr.’s venture firm 1789 Capital invested in Polymarket. The Winklevoss twins, who run Gemini, are financial backers of American Bitcoin Corp, which Eric Trump co-founded. Every firm whose compliance concerns were overridden has a documented connection to the president’s family.
Meanwhile, the CFTC has been filing lawsuits against states that try to regulate prediction markets on their own. The agency sued New York the same day 38 state attorneys general backed a Massachusetts case against Kalshi. Six states have been sued so far: Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois, New York, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.
What This Means for the Industry
The investigation does not allege that any laws were broken. Revolving-door moves between regulators and the industries they oversee are legal in the United States, provided cooling-off periods are respected. But the optics are severe. A regulatory agency that simultaneously guts enforcement, overrides staff concerns, sues states trying to fill the gap, and then declares war on state gambling regulators is not a regulator protecting consumers. It is a regulator protecting an industry.
The House Agriculture Committee urged Trump last week to nominate four commissioners to fill the empty seats. The CFTC currently operates with one member. Whether new commissioners restore the enforcement posture or entrench the current direction will determine whether prediction markets operate under real oversight or continue facing insider trading questions with no one left at the agency willing to ask them.
