Prediction markets posted $8.6 billion in taker volume during April 2026, according to Dune Analytics. That is a steep drop from March’s $25.7 billion record. But inside the headline number, the power balance shifted. The CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange now leads in volume for the first time. The crypto-native platform that dominated every month since 2024 dropped to second.
Kalshi posted $5.4B in taker volume. Polymarket posted $1.99B.
The gap is not close. Kalshi generated $5.42 billion in April taker volume against Polymarket’s $1.99 billion. In late 2025 the two platforms traded near parity. Now Kalshi holds almost three times the lead. Predict.fun came third at $579 million, followed by Opinion at $376 million and Limitless at $205 million. Everything else combined: $12.2 million.
Notional volume tells a slightly different story. Kalshi led there too at $14.8 billion. Polymarket posted $9 billion, plus an additional $1.26 billion from its separate U.S. product that launched after the QCEX acquisition in late 2025. In total, $29.8 billion in notional volume flowed through prediction markets in April.
April 2026 Prediction Market Breakdown
| Platform | Taker Volume | Users | Fees | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $5.42B | ~85K | N/A | $630.7M |
| Polymarket | $1.99B | 678K | $29.22M | $449.9M |
| Predict.fun | $579M | 18.5K | $260K | <$15M |
| Opinion | $376M | 3.4K | $154K | <$15M |
| Limitless | $205M | 71.2K | $1.51M | <$15M |
Polymarket lost the volume crown but kept the money
Here is the number that should make you pause. Polymarket collected $29.22 million in April fees. Kalshi’s fee data is not broken out in the Dune dashboard, but the sector total was $31.15 million. That means Polymarket captured 93% of all prediction market fees while holding only 23% of taker volume.
The explanation: Polymarket’s traders place higher-value contracts on average. The platform also had 678,342 unique users in April, roughly eight times Kalshi’s implied base. More users, higher-stakes bets, better fee extraction. Volume leadership and revenue leadership are not the same thing.
Polymarket also processed 87.4 million transactions in April. Kalshi processed 94.4 million. Together they accounted for the overwhelming majority of the sector’s 184.3 million total. Nobody else is close.
Open interest hit $1.11B. Two platforms hold 98% of it.
As of May 1, total open interest across prediction markets stood at $1.11 billion. Kalshi held $630.7 million, Polymarket $449.9 million. Every other platform combined: under $30 million. This is a two-horse race with a growing crowd watching from the sidelines.
The competitive landscape is getting more crowded though. Hyperliquid launched prediction markets on its perps engine this month with zero open fees. Gemini secured a DCO license. And the legal fight between the CFTC and 38 state attorneys general will determine whether this market operates under one federal framework or fragments state by state.
From $500M to $8.6B in under two years
Total monthly taker volume sat below $500 million as recently as mid-2024. The sector has grown 17x since then. The 2024 U.S. election was the inflection point. Total 2025 industry volume exceeded $63 billion. March 2026 hit $25.7 billion. April’s $8.6 billion looks like a cooldown, but it is still 17 times where the market was two years ago.
The prediction market sector is projected to become a $1 trillion annual industry within four years. Kalshi and Polymarket now control 85-95% of volume. The question is not whether the market grows. It is whether anyone else gets a seat at the table before the regulatory walls go up.
