Kalshi closed a $1 billion Series F on May 7 at a $22 billion valuation. Five months ago the number was $11 billion. Five months before that, it was roughly half of that. Three rounds in seven months, each one doubling the price. Coatue led. Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, IVP, Morgan Stanley, and ARK Invest all participated.
The company told Bloomberg its annualized revenue exceeds $1.5 billion. That puts its price-to-revenue multiple at roughly 15x. Not cheap. Not absurd either, for the fastest-growing category in financial services outside of AI.
Institutional volume up 800% in six months. That’s the number that moved the check.
Annualized trading volume tripled from $52 billion to $178 billion in six months. Institutional trading volume specifically surged 800% over the same period. Kalshi now claims over 90% of U.S. prediction market activity and the majority of global volume.
The growth is not retail-driven anymore. Hedge funds, asset managers, prop trading firms, and insurance companies are using event contracts to hedge real-world risk. Block trading, which Kalshi launched recently, lets institutions execute large orders without moving the market. The company plans to add risk products and deeper broker integrations specifically for institutional demand.
CEO Tarek Mansour framed it bluntly: “There are few categories in recent history that have scaled this quickly outside of AI.” Coatue founder Philippe Laffont added that consumers already embraced it and institutions will follow. At $8.6 billion in April taker volume alone, the trajectory speaks for itself.
Five states suing, Arizona filing criminal charges
The legal pressure is real. Arizona AG Kris Mayes filed criminal charges alleging Kalshi operates an unlicensed wagering business. Nevada secured a temporary restraining order against sports and entertainment contracts. Washington sued under its Gambling Act. Wisconsin claims Kalshi disguises illegal sports betting as “event contracts.” Illinois joined the pile.
On the other side, the CFTC has sued five states defending its sole authority over event contracts. A16z filed an 18-page letter backing the CFTC against a coalition of 38 state attorneys general. The jurisdictional fight is the single biggest risk to Kalshi’s business model. A federal win means one framework nationwide. A state win means geo-blocking, fragmented liquidity, and possibly criminal liability for executives.
Investors priced that risk in and wrote the check anyway. That tells you something about how they weigh the odds.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: volume leader, but not the revenue leader
Kalshi leads in taker volume. But Polymarket captured 93% of all prediction market fees in April while holding only 23% of taker volume. Polymarket has 678,000 monthly users versus Kalshi’s estimated 85,000. Higher-value contracts, more users, better fee extraction. Volume leadership and revenue leadership are not the same game.
Polymarket is expected to launch its own token. Premarket contracts imply a fully diluted valuation around $14 billion. Kalshi at $22 billion is already trading at a premium. But Kalshi has CFTC regulation, institutional access, and a revenue base that Polymarket’s token launch has not yet proven it can match.
Meanwhile Hyperliquid launched zero-fee prediction markets on its perps engine. Gemini got a DCO license. The Senate banned its own members from trading on prediction platforms. The sector is scaling, regulating, and fragmenting simultaneously. $22 billion says Kalshi is betting it consolidates instead.
