Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied to $76,000 this week, reaching two-month highs on the back of easing US-Iran tensions and softer inflation data. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, argues that the geopolitical backdrop is not just a short-term tailwind but a structural case for Bitcoin’s addressable market surpassing gold’s $38 trillion market cap. Separately, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe sees BTC’s historic drawdown against gold as a setup for a mean reversion to $90,000 within three months.
BTC Outperforms Stocks and Gold Since Airstrikes Began
Hougan laid out the performance gap in a post on X. Since US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran began on February 28, Bitcoin has gained 12% while the S&P 500 has fallen 1% and gold has dropped 10%. He noted that this caught many off guard, since Bitcoin is widely classified as a risk asset and was expected to decline during a geopolitical shock.
Asset Performance Since Feb 28 Airstrikes
| Asset | Performance | Current Level |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | +12% | ~$76,000 |
| S&P 500 | -1% | N/A |
| Gold | -10% | ~$38T market cap |
SWIFT Weaponization Built Bitcoin’s Geopolitical Case
Hougan rejected two common explanations for Bitcoin‘s strength during conflict: that geopolitics is irrelevant to crypto, and that war-driven money printing lifts BTC over time. Instead, he pointed to the weaponization of the SWIFT network as the structural catalyst.
When Russia was cut off from SWIFT in 2022, it demonstrated that the global payments infrastructure could be used as a geopolitical weapon. Hougan argued at the time that this would eventually push nations toward an apolitical monetary alternative. Now, with Iran under financial sanctions and an oil blockade, reportedly collecting crypto tolls for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, that thesis is playing out in real time.
From this framing, Hougan drew two conclusions. First, Bitcoin is likely to rise during future geopolitical conflicts, particularly those involving countries caught between the US and Chinese financial systems. Second, Bitcoin’s total addressable market extends well beyond gold’s $38 trillion cap because it serves a function that gold cannot: programmable, borderless, sanctions-resistant value transfer.
BTC/Gold Ratio Hits Lowest Since Mid-2023
In gold-denominated terms, Bitcoin recently fell to its lowest levels since mid-2023. Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe described the recent BTC/gold correction as the heaviest in Bitcoin’s history. Using historical mean reversion data, he estimated that the average return 12 months after comparable drawdowns was 350% to 450%, which from a $60,000 base would project a move toward $275,000.
On a shorter timeframe, Van de Poppe estimated that BTC is likely to trade between $87,500 and $90,000 within three months, calling this the type of cycle moment where long-term allocation tends to pay off.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Explained
Beyond Store of Value: The Sanctions Thesis
Hougan’s analysis reframes the Bitcoin-vs-gold debate away from the traditional store-of-value comparison. The argument is no longer about which asset holds purchasing power better during inflation. It is about which asset functions in a world where payment rails themselves are becoming instruments of geopolitical leverage.
If the trend of weaponizing financial infrastructure continues, and there is no sign it is reversing, Bitcoin’s role as an apolitical settlement layer becomes more relevant to nation-states, corporations, and individuals who need to operate outside the reach of any single government’s sanctions apparatus. That is a fundamentally different addressable market than the one gold occupies, and by Hougan’s logic, a larger one.
